“While this rebound marks an encouraging close-out to the sharp downturn, further upward momentum would be required to return to the boom times of the previous decade.”

In their annual forecast of the Oakland County economy, Fulton and ILIR colleague Donald R. Grimes predict that the overall rate of job growth (based on annual averages) will edge upward from losses of 1.7 percent last year and 0.2 percent this year to a moderate gain of 0.8 percent next year.

On a fourth-quarter to fourth-quarter basis (i.e., the change from the end of one year to the end of the next), the growth rate accelerates from zero during 2003 to 1.5 percent during 2004.

Overall, unemployment in Oakland County will edge downward from 4.2 percent at the end of this year to 4 percent at the close of 2004, the researchers say.

According to the forecast, job growth in private education and health services will account for all of Oakland’s net increase in employment. These industries will add 10,700 jobs from the end of last year to the end of next year.

“This rapid growth reflects both increased spending on health care and the available work force, which will allow these industries to fill many open positions,” Grimes said.

Among other service-providing industries, leisure and hospitality (800 jobs), financial activities (200 jobs) and miscellaneous services (700 jobs) are expected to post modest employment gains from the end of 2002 to the end of 2004.

On the other hand, other sectors will lose jobs in the next two years, including: wholesale trade (1,000 jobs); retail trade (1,000 jobs); transportation and warehousing (300 jobs); information (200 jobs); and professional and business services (100 jobs).

In the goods-producing sector, Oakland County will lose about 100 jobs from the end of last year to the end of 2004. A decline of 500 construction jobs will be largely offset by manufacturing job gains of 400.

“Small gains in the durable manufacturing industries occur in machinery manufacturing, as investment spending on producer durables equipment recovers,” Grimes said. “Also, we expect that the second shift at the Lake Orion Assembly Plant will return in the summer of 2004, creating 400 new jobs in Oakland County.”

While automobile manufacturing is prominent in Oakland’s economy, the county also has a high concentration of high-tech jobs in engineering and computer-system design industries—all of which tend to be more sensitive to swings in the business cycle, the researchers say.

“One of the lessons from the recent recession is that the purchase of products from technology industries such as computer software tends to be very sensitive to the business cycle because, like manufactured products, their purchase can and will be postponed when businesses are hurting,” Grimes said. Despite recent job losses, Oakland County still remains one of the most robust economies in Michigan and the nation, the U-M economists say.

Since 1990, private-sector employment in Oakland County has grown nearly 25 percent and has created more private-sector jobs (136,000) than any other area in the state, accounting for 30 percent of the employment gains in Michigan during that time.

In addition, its per capita income of $45,872 in 2000 is more than 50 percent above the average for both Michigan and the nation, and ranks within the top 1 percent of all counties in the United States.

The 18th annual U-M forecast of Oakland County’s economy was sponsored by 10 Oakland County organizations. Its presentation was hosted by the county’s Planning & Economic Development Services Division; Bank One, Michigan; and Oakland Community College.

/img/oakcnty.jpg”>”The weak national economy of the past couple of years has hit Oakland County particularly hard because of its concentration of manufacturing and high-tech jobs, but Oakland’s economy returns to positive growth in the second half of 2003,” said George A. Fulton, an economist at the U-M Institute of Labor and Industrial Relations (ILIR), which is directed jointly by the U-M Business School and School of Social Work.

“While this rebound marks an encouraging close-out to the sharp downturn, further upward momentum would be required to return to the boom times of the previous decade.”

In their annual forecast of the Oakland County economy, Fulton and ILIR colleague Donald R. Grimes predict that the overall rate of job growth (based on annual averages) will edge upward from losses of 1.7 percent last year and 0.2 percent this year to a moderate gain of 0.8 percent next year.

On a fourth-quarter to fourth-quarter basis (i.e., the change from the end of one year to the end of the next), the growth rate accelerates from zero during 2003 to 1.5 percent during 2004.

Overall, unemployment in Oakland County will edge downward from 4.2 percent at the end of this year to 4 percent at the close of 2004, the researchers say.

According to the forecast, job growth in private education and health services will account for all of Oakland’s net increase in employment. These industries will add 10,700 jobs from the end of last year to the end of next year.

“This rapid growth reflects both increased spending on health care and the available work force, which will allow these industries to fill many open positions,” Grimes said.

Among other service-providing industries, leisure and hospitality (800 jobs), financial activities (200 jobs) and miscellaneous services (700 jobs) are expected to post modest employment gains from the end of 2002 to the end of 2004.

On the other hand, other sectors will lose jobs in the next two years, including: wholesale trade (1,000 jobs); retail trade (1,000 jobs); transportation and warehousing (300 jobs); information (200 jobs); and professional and business services (100 jobs).

In the goods-producing sector, Oakland County will lose about 100 jobs from the end of last year to the end of 2004. A decline of 500 construction jobs will be largely offset by manufacturing job gains of 400.

“Small gains in the durable manufacturing industries occur in machinery manufacturing, as investment spending on producer durables equipment recovers,” Grimes said. “Also, we expect that the second shift at the Lake Orion Assembly Plant will return in the summer of 2004, creating 400 new jobs in Oakland County.”

While automobile manufacturing is prominent in Oakland’s economy, the county also has a high concentration of high-tech jobs in engineering and computer-system design industries—all of which tend to be more sensitive to swings in the business cycle, the researchers say.

“One of the lessons from the recent recession is that the purchase of products from technology industries such as computer software tends to be very sensitive to the business cycle because, like manufactured products, their purchase can and will be postponed when businesses are hurting,” Grimes said. Despite recent job losses, Oakland County still remains one of the most robust economies in Michigan and the nation, the U-M economists say.

Since 1990, private-sector employment in Oakland County has grown nearly 25 percent and has created more private-sector jobs (136,000) than any other area in the state, accounting for 30 percent of the employment gains in Michigan during that time.

In addition, its per capita income of $45,872 in 2000 is more than 50 percent above the average for both Michigan and the nation, and ranks within the top 1 percent of all counties in the United States.

The 18th annual U-M forecast of Oakland County’s economy was sponsored by 10 Oakland County organizations. Its presentation was hosted by the county’s Planning & Economic Development Services Division; Bank One, Michigan; and Oakland Community College.